Kinta Valley still looks like a DAP fortress but the Malay swing back to Umno means that Barisan Nasional has a good chance of taking between 33 and 36 seats in Perak's 59-seat Legislative Assembly.
DATUK Seri Nizar Jamaluddin is a fiery speaker who has become quite famous for his singing. However, he is what one might call a one-song man because he only sings the Teresa Teng song, The Moon Reflects My Heart. The Chinese pop ballad has become some sort of PAS theme song for the Chinese ceramah crowd.
The former Perak Mentri Besar is not a fantastic singer. He sometimes goes out of tune and he once changed keys three times during the song to avoid the high notes.
But he is a big hit with his Chinese audience. It helps that he is tall, quite handsome and speaks a bit of Mandarin and Cantonese, the lingua franca in Kinta Valley. He also looks accessible, unlike many PAS leaders who often appear as though they have just stepped out of a plane from the Middle East.
Past and present: Dr Zambry (right) has earned a reputation as a humble and hard-working mentri besar while the popular Nizar (left) is still being projected as the "lawful mentri besar". They are seen here with Ngeh.
Nizar is probably the only PAS leader who has ever sung his way into the Chinese heart and his Pakatan Rakyat colleagues are hoping he will help them recapture power in Perak.
Unfortunately, Nizar, despite his engaging personality and singing, is likely to remain Perak's ex-mentri besar.
The signs are that Barisan Nasional is on course to retain Perak with a simple but comfortable majority. Going by the last three by-elections, there has been a 6% to 8% vote swing back to Barisan. This, together with Umno's claim of a 5% Malay vote swing to their side, means that the Malay-majority or mixed seats currently held by the Pakatan and which were won with a majority of less than 55% of the votes are in danger. There are at least eight Pakatan seats in this category – four belonging to PAS and another four to PKR.
The Barisan currently has 28 seats, 27 of which are held by Umno and one by the MCA. If this continues till the general election, the eight Pakatan seats are likely to fall and Barisan will be on the way home with 36 seats.
The DAP almost wiped out the MCA and Gerakan in Perak in 2008. Datuk Dr Mah Hang Soon was the sole MCA man to survive in a state seat.
Dr Faizal: 'The Mentri Besar's 1Malaysia approach is a big selling point.'
Kinta Valley, where the Chinese dominate, will still be a DAP fortress but even the DAP may have trouble holding on to a couple of seats, namely Kepayang and Pokok Assam, which it won with only 52% of the votes.
Perak is a state with big political personalities on both sides of the fence.
From the DAP there are Lim Kit Siang, Fong Po Kuan, M. Kula segaran, the powerful cousins Ngeh Koo Ham and Nga Kor Min, and the infamous Hee Yit Foong.
Umno has Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz, Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Datuk Husni Hanadzlah and Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abd Kadir.
The MCA has Datuk Kong Cho Ha and Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan; PAS has Nizar and Dr Mujahid Yusuf; and PKR has giant-killer Dr Jeya kumar Devaraj who quashed Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu's political career.
The Perak electorate understands the power of the ballot box and Kinta Valley especially hungers for heroes, be they champion fighters or champions of the underdog.
The way the votes went in the Lumut parliamentary seat is proof of just how savvy Perakians are about their politics.
The Lumut folk chose candidate over party and they elected a star-studded cast. They voted in the MCA's Kong as Lumut MP, and he went on to become a minister. For the three state seats, they elected PAS' Nizar who went on to become mentri besar; Dr Zambry who took over from Nizar; and state DAP chairman Ngeh who was known as the de facto mentri besar.
The credentials and personality of the candidate will be important in Perak. For instance, Dr Mujahid, whose late father was a PAS president, won Parit Buntar with 61% of the votes. However, his party colleagues only scraped through in the two state seats with 51% and 53% of the votes.
The MCA's Dr Mah won Chenderiang with a 65% majority even as his party colleagues fell like nine pins. Voters were impressed that he was an eminent cardiologist in Ipoh.
Gopeng, a seat long held by the MCA, fell to PKR's Dr Lee Boon Chye, another cardiologist from Ipoh. He beat Datuk Ling Hee Leong, a big name with a famous father, by more than 7,000 votes.
"We had some morons the last time. They'd better not try that again on us," said an Ipoh-based journalist.
Dr Mah: 'Even a fortress can be penetrated if leaders do not keep promises.'
Kinta Valley has been described as a DAP fortress after its clean sweep of Ipoh Timur, Ipoh Barat and Batu Gajah, the three parliamentary seats that straddle the valley.
The formidable trio of Lim Kit Siang, M. Kulasegaran and Fong Po Kuan carried all the nine DAP candidates who contested the Kinta Valley state seats.
The DAP won almost all the Chinese-majority seats available in 2008 and it is now eyeing the Malay seats. The party will do well again and it is on the lookout for Malay professionals who are of mentri besar material so that, in the event they recapture power, they do not have to turn the top post over to PAS or PKR.
The DAP's confidence has to do with the assumption that the Chinese in Perak are still resentful of the way the last government was toppled.
"At least 80% of the Chinese are with us," said Jelutong MP Jeff Ooi who has been helping the party in northern Perak.
But, said one former DAP leader: "A lot depends on whether the mood is still there among the Chinese. Kinta Valley has been one of those pendulum areas for us. We have talked about it in the party, that when Kinta Valley swings, it goes all the way."
Chinese sentiment, claimed Dr Mah, is no longer as hostile as a year ago and his party president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek has been investing time and effort in the state.
Dr Mah, who is a state exco member, has come out with an 18-point document of what the state government has accomplished in areas such as investment, tourism and land issues and he is hoping the effort will translate into votes.
"Even a fortress can be penetrated if we deliver," he said.
The battle field will be the Malay majority and the mixed seats. PAS and PKR will be fighting for their survival in Perak.
"We are trying to manage the Malay issues but there is an endless onslaught on our ties with the DAP," said Dr Mujahid.
PAS has also been put on the defensive by the situation in Penang where the Malays are perceived to be sidelined by the DAP-dominated government.
"But I'm confident Perak people will not support a regime that did not respect their votes," he said.
The powerful DAP cousins Ngeh and Nga have added to PAS' problems. Their popularity on and control of the Chinese ground has been at the expense of the DAP's image among Malays and Indians.
The hostilities between the cousins and Kulasegaran, the popular Ipoh Barat MP, is not helping in the party's effort to revive its Indian base. Kulasegaran is an Indian success story of an estate boy beating the odds to succeed in law and politics.
Some have likened the cousins' political style to a Han Dynasty saying, "cheng ye xiao he, pai ye xiao he" which translates as "success due to one person and downfall also due to the same person". But no one, not even Kit Siang, can touch them at this point in time.
Nga: The younger of the two powerful cousins is a Chinese superstar.
"They command majority support; they work hard and are very committed and focused," said Ooi.
Ngeh and Nga are also doing things that few DAP leaders have been able to do. They have built up a formidable network of branches and divisions that is going to take the party from one that is over-reliant on national issues to a real grassroots force in Perak.
Moreover, the younger and more domineering cousin, Nga, has a cult following. His pretty-boy looks attract women admirers and he has a macho style that many Chinese look up to.
He is the party's most powerful orator and a superstar in the making. If only he had better public relations.
The Barisan made a smart choice with Dr Zambry as Mentri Besar. Many did not think much of him when he took over as Mentri Besar but he has turned out to be humble and hard-working and his intellect offsets his lack of personal charisma.
"His selling point is that he is genuinely 1Malaysia at a time when Perak was divided by racially-charged issues," said state Barisan Youth strategy chief Dr Faizal Tajuddin.
His Indian Muslim roots turned out to be an asset as well because it enabled him to reach out to the Chinese and Indians. Dr Zambry is quite well-liked on the ground even if the Umno brand is still not very saleable among the non-Malays.
He has been on an investment drive and the economy is going to be his key platform in the run-up to the general election. He is hoping that this, more than anything else, will speak to the Chinese and persuade them to give the Barisan another chance.
The best lessons political parties have learnt from the 2008 election is that the electorate demands a higher quality of candidates, and delivery.
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